One governed read on Northstar Growth: the context behind the last move and the next decision.
Drafted after your £3,400 shift : reported store revenue was +£29,804/mo versus the comparison period (8.8× the amount moved; directional, not causal).
Move £39,889 from Meta Retargeting to TikTok to lift modelled incremental return while holding total budget constant.
no channel moves by more than 15% of its spend; total paid budget is held constant.
Directional read from average incremental return — a verified MMM sharpens this into true marginal returns.
Below-median incremental return (2.1×) on £484,106 spend — likely past its efficient point. Directional.
Below-median incremental return (1.5×) on £390,645 spend — likely past its efficient point. Directional.
Around the median incremental return (2.4×). Directional.
Around the median incremental return (2.6×). Directional.
Governed metrics · 2025-01-03 → 2026-07-04
Connected context flows through four governed products: meaning, evidence, tools and memory.
Directional. Ranking is by average incremental ROAS from the MMM, not marginal (£-for-£) return, so the uplift estimate ignores diminishing returns and is an optimistic first-order figure. Precise marginal optimisation needs the MMM response curves.
Above-median incremental return (3.8×) — a candidate to scale into. Directional.
Above-median incremental return (6.3×) — a candidate to scale into. Directional.